Issued: 0530hrs Friday 31st July 2026
Duty forecaster: Dan Graves

Thunderstorms in west/central Europe spread northeastward.

Friday
Dry, hot and sunny weather through much of Spain and Portugal, local showers toward the Biscay coast and Pyrenees. Sunny and hot for the western Mediterranean islands as well as most of Italy, an odd shower toward Sicily by afternoon. Hot sunshine as well for the Balkan States, Greece, and Türkiye.
Extensively hot across most of the continent away from northern coasts. A zone of rain and thunderstorms for central and eastern France drifting east into the western Alps of Switzerland and southern Germany later. Northern France stays largely dry, but a local area of thunderstorms may move over the Netherlands, later into northwest Germany. Dry most of the day for Austria and Hungary. Some showers may form in Czechia, Slovakia, and Poland later. Dry sunshine for Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Showery bursts of rain and windy for western Norway. Early rain clears from southern Sweden for mostly dry weather, feeling fresher than previous days. Rain spreads across northern Sweden into Finland, some heavy, clustering into a broad area of heavy rain across northern Scandinavia. A band of rain also crosses into the Baltic states during the day where it will be hot.

Saturday
More sunshine in Iberia, some local showers in east and north Spain. Dry across the western Mediterranean and much of Italy, some afternoon showers in the central mountains. Extensive sun for the Balkan States, Greece, and Türkiye.
Mostly sunny in France, some scattered showers in the east. A few afternoon showers in the Low Countries and Germany, otherwise sunny; the showers may be more frequent in south and east Germany later. Heavy thundery rain over the Alps extends across Czechia into Poland. Slovakia and Hungary will be try, though hot in Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. Heavy showers move into Belarus, the rest of eastern Europe very warm and sunny.
Heavy showers in Lithuania and Latvia, likely staying dry in Estonia. Showers for central Sweden and Finland, largely dry with sun elsewhere. Showers more widespread across Norway, particularly western areas. Some afternoon showers affecting Denmark but fine weather otherwise. A notable breeze across much of Scandinavia.