Issued: 0530hrs Monday 4th May 2026
Duty forecaster: Dan Graves

Torrential thunderstorms in France and northern Spain spread into Germany, Switzerland, and northern Italy.

Monday
Heavy thunderstorms across northern Spain on Monday. Central and southern Spain and Portugal will be fair, just a few showers here. Some showery rain in the Balearics. Wet in Corsica with heavy thunderstorms whilst Corsica should be fair. Italy will be fair in central and southern areas although heavy, thundery showers affect the northwest. Fine in the Balkan States with unbroken sunshine. Greece will be fine with plenty of sunshine, a few light showers west. Rain and upland snow in much of Türkiye, but largely dry in the far west.
France is going to be affected by widespread torrential thundery rain bringing a risk of flooding. The Low Countries will be showers with heavy thunderstorms later. Germany will have heavy, thundery rain in the west and perhaps more widely across the north, but eastern areas having more scattered showers, largely dry south. Poland will have some showers in the north whilst the south is fair. Hungary and Austria will be fair but heavy, thunderstorms in Switzerland. Dry with a mix of cloud and sun in Czechia, Austria, and Slovakia, extensive sunshine Belarus southward to Bulgaria.
Denmark will be dry and fair with more sunshine. The Baltic States will have sunny spells and a few scattered showers, perhaps a broader area of rain early in Estonia. Early rain in southern Finland, shower central and northern Finland. Rain, some heavy in Norway where it will be windy and cold, sleet and some snow in the north. Southern Sweden will be dry and bright and also blustery, showers to the north which will be wintry in the far north.

Tuesday
Further heavy, thundery showers in northern Iberia, fair to the south with sun. Showers in the Balearics, also in Sardinia and Corsica where the showers could turn thundery. Widespread thunderstorms in Italy, only the far south and Sicily staying dry. Scattered showers in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the rest of the Balkans dry with sunny spells. Fine for Greece and west Türkiye.
Torrential thunderstorms still widespread across France, a band of heavy, thundery rain extending east across Belgium, central Germany, and into Poland, though more broken here. The Netherlands will be drier. Heavy showers in Switzerland and west Austria. Drier with mixed cloud and sun for Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary, bright sunshine Belarus south to Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, where temperatures will be quite warm.
Bright sunshine for Denmark and southern Sweden. Wintry showers for west and northern Norway, a few spreading southeast but also often bright here. Some showers will drift into central Sweden. The north will be snowy, this extending into Lapland. Only scattered showers further south in Finland and trending sunny. Rain in Lithuania, drier in Latvia and bright in Estonia.